Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Predictions: Incumbents Lose Today

The two big races for today involve the but liberal but admirable Joe Lieberman and the execrable but hopelessly ineffective Cynthia McKinney.

Lieberman will lose his Democratic primary race to Kos-ack far leftist Ned Lamont. He will lose because he was not completely pure in his leftist ideology, because he had the audacity to take an independent view of the Iraq War. And if he loses, it's a good thing for conservatives and Lieberman and a disastrous thing for the Dems.

For conservatives, it will show that the Democrats are little more than a strictly orthodox, far left enclave led by the netroots crowd. Worse yet, it may alienate some Jewish voters. The Dems have not done much to welcome more moderate Jews, and in fact, have done their best to alienate them. The far left is significantly pro-Islamism and anti-American, which generally also means anti-Israel and anti-Semitic. So in all, this is a fairly shortsighted approach on the part of the left that will indeed energize the granola crowd, but which will push away swing voters. Lieberman will win as an independent in the general election, proving that he has enough political mojo that he doesn't need the party of Cynthia McKinney to give him legitimacy.

And speaking of the insane Congresswoman from Georgia, McKinney will repeat her primary disaster of 2002. Her constituents would rather have a respectable representative who brings positive attention to their Atlanta-area district rather than embarrassment. But her removal is unfortunate for a number of reasons.

McKinney was ardently defended by the Congressional Black Caucus after all of her obnoxious behavior, just as the CBC was doing the same for Rep. William Jefferson who is now under investigation in a bribery scandal. The lesson was that the CBC is little more than a good-old-boys network that defends its members regardless of what they have done, based solely upon those members' complexion and wingnut ideologies. It also showed that people like McKinney, who embrace Cindy Sheehan as an effort to get votes, who make fools of themselves on camera by filibustering when interviewed about allegations that she struck a police officer who was trying to protect her, and who was critical of a staffer while the microphone was on really do represent the party that the Democrats are trying to become in the 21st Century.

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